A look at the Cape Town property market.
Warren Buffett once said that he never invests in something that he doesn’t understandSo, to take a leaf out of Uncle Warren’s book, I’ve started to consider looking at Listed Property as an alternative to bricks & mortar (I already have a bricks & mortar portfolio but I by no means propose that I know everything there is to know about property!)After doing a bit of research on the SA listed sector, it turns out that the sector is experiencing a mini-renaissance & the sector is at record highs from the lows in 2009. Every company I’ve looked at seems to have gained back what they lost when the market turned. How is this possible in the current climate of impossible mortgages & negative growth? Surely now would be a time to look at this sector with a long term view? (3-5 years)Any suggestions?
I can't say I have studied the Dow long term prospects with any great focus, but there are a few things on the charts I am seeing that make me think that the whole thing is going to dive again, perhaps to lows lower than the last big crash ... possibly in the next few months.And of course, if the Dow goes, all the markets go. Like I say, more of a gut feel than anything else - my research on the market is more short term patterns so I don't talk with any great authority, but I would be nervous thinking upside in the share market at this stage. Let's face it, the world is in deep poo at present yet the stock markets have clawed back most of their losses - are they really going to keep on climbing ...I see you have a property blog and an interest in SA property. There's some interesting graphs here you may find useful -http://housepricesouthafrica.com/graphs/
@ CJ SaysThanks for the feedbackI share the same sentiment that the next few months will be a rough ride for listed property........otherwise, the fundamentals are definitely out of the window ! Hopefully, once the fall has run its course, I'll feel easier to get involved.By the way, I dig your graphs :)
@ EricThey are not actually MY graphs - but I agree, it is a great site that has appeared in recent times - I used to talk about some of these graphs in posts for years but it was always hard to describe what I was seeing. Now everything I need to reference is in one place. So I contribute my thoughts there and just give people the link. I see you are in the UK. Interestingly your real price property chart there has just past the "bull trap" stage and is entering into the "fear" plunge stage. South Africa's graph is just slightly behind in that we are presently resisting completing the "bull trap".Compared to the US, both our countries are dragging their heals and trying to do the impossible - they think they can prevent the housing crash from doing what it needs to do ie wipe out all the housing bubble excess.
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